There have been 999,999,999,951 brackets eliminated. That number is unfathomably large.

Isn't it incredible that this exact path of wins and losses was embedded in that massive number 49 times? If one game was different, there would be X number of brackets that cover that path as well. If two games were different, … three, etc. And all of those different paths sum to 1,000,000,000,000 with a calculable distribution. Put all of that together and, 56 games into the NCAA tournament, I have 49 brackets remaining. Sometimes, if I think hard enough, I don't understand any math at all.

It is nice to be working with small numbers again. There are 128 brackets left. I now have 38.3% of the possible remaining brackets in my dataset. At this point we can cease the prayers regarding chalk and instead flip a coin. An Iowa upset over Illinois would be pretty rough, but now that we're into the territory of small numbers, a lot of this is down to chance. Distributions fit neatly on a curve with a large dataset but as we compress down, it soon won't always be the favorite that I need to win.

There is one possible scenario where my brackets are eliminated without reaching the Final Four: UCONN, Iowa, Purdue and Tennessee all have to win. If any of them lose, I will have at least one bracket remaining for the final 3 games.

The alternative scenario, the one in which I am guaranteed a perfect bracket based on the outcome of the Elite 8, does not exist. So, as we look forward to the Final Four and championship, where typically three games of 50/50 matchups occur, I will be left to pray for luck, not chalk.

Reach out anytime. Fade the corn.

Sam

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