Round 1 Odds
KenPom vs Sportsbook win probabilities for every first round matchup
I thought KenPom didn't adequately represent 1 seed strength over 16 seeds, and when sportsbooks have such a large disparity in outcome their vig is much higher. For this reason I used ~99% for each 1 seed, which is not reflected in this table.
| Matchup | KenPom | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Duke vs 16 Siena | — | — |
| 8 Ohio St vs 9 TCU | 58.07% / 41.93% | 56.4% / 43.6% |
| 5 St. John's vs 12 N. Iowa | 72.58% / 27.42% | 81.19% / 18.81% |
| 4 Kansas vs 13 Cal Baptist | 78.38% / 21.62% | 88.0% / 12.0% |
| 6 Louisville vs 11 South Florida | 66.08% / 33.92% | 66.36% / 33.64% |
| 3 Mich. St. vs 14 NDSU | 83.27% / 16.73% | 90.83% / 9.17% |
| 7 UCLA vs 10 UCF | 61.4% / 38.6% | 66.36% / 33.64% |
| 2 UCONN vs 15 Furman | 88.45% / 11.55% | 95.78% / 4.22% |
| 1 Florida vs 16 Prairie | — | — |
| 8 Clemson vs 9 Iowa | 44.69% / 55.31% | 43.65% / 56.35% |
| 5 Vanderbilt vs 12 McNeese St. | 74.3% / 25.7% | 84.0% / 16.0% |
| 4 Nebraska vs 13 Troy | 84.33% / 15.67% | 88.7% / 11.3% |
| 6 UNC vs 11 VCU | 56.44% / 43.56% | 59.34% / 40.66% |
| 3 Illinois vs 14 Penn | 89.62% / 10.38% | 96.84% / 3.16% |
| 7 St. Mary's vs 10 Texas A&M | 57.75% / 42.25% | 55.14% / 44.86% |
| 2 Houston vs 15 Idaho | 89.91% / 10.09% | 96.84% / 3.16% |
| 1 Arizona vs 16 Long Island | — | — |
| 8 Villanova vs 9 Utah St. | 48.63% / 51.37% | 43.65% / 56.35% |
| 5 Wisconsin vs 12 High Point | 74.79% / 25.21% | 81.19% / 18.81% |
| 4 Arkansas vs 13 Hawaii | 81.43% / 18.57% | 90.4% / 9.6% |
| 6 BYU vs 11 Texas | 57.5% / 42.5% | 60.32% / 39.68% |
| 3 Gonzaga vs 14 Kennesaw St. | 88.23% / 11.77% | 94.91% / 5.09% |
| 7 Miami (FL) vs 10 Missouri | 59.16% / 40.84% | 55.14% / 44.86% |
| 2 Purdue vs 15 Queens (N.C.) | 90.79% / 9.21% | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| 1 Michigan vs 16 UMBC | — | — |
| 8 Georgia vs 9 St. Louis | 54.02% / 45.98% | 56.35% / 43.65% |
| 5 Texas Tech vs 12 Akron | 70.83% / 29.17% | 74.09% / 25.91% |
| 4 Alabama vs 13 Hofstra | 76.32% / 23.68% | 86.3% / 13.7% |
| 6 Tennessee vs 11 Miami (OH) | 77.8% / 22.2% | 86.2% / 13.8% |
| 3 Virginia vs 14 Wright St. | 84.76% / 15.24% | 93.96% / 6.04% |
| 7 Kentucky vs 10 Santa Clara | 53.73% / 46.27% | 59.34% / 40.66% |
| 2 Iowa St. vs 15 Tennessee St. | 92.06% / 7.94% | 95.9% / 4.1% |