Simulation and Historical Statistics for the NCAA Tournament
Statistics from a trillion brackets for the 2026 and historical NCAA Tournaments
Team Advancement Probabilities
Probability each team reaches each round, based on one trillion simulated brackets.
| Team | Seed | Rd of 32 | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Champ Game | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 1 | 99% | 82% | 66% | 49% | 33% | 21% |
| Florida | 1 | 99% | 82% | 64% | 46% | 30% | 17% |
| Auburn | 1 | 99% | 77% | 59% | 42% | 25% | 14% |
| Houston | 1 | 99% | 70% | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% |
| Tennessee | 2 | 93% | 68% | 47% | 24% | 12% | 6% |
| Alabama | 2 | 93% | 65% | 41% | 18% | 9% | 4% |
| TTU | 3 | 90% | 58% | 34% | 15% | 7% | 3% |
| MSU | 2 | 92% | 61% | 35% | 16% | 7% | 3% |
| Iowa St | 3 | 89% | 57% | 31% | 14% | 6% | 2% |
| St. Johns | 2 | 92% | 56% | 29% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| Maryland | 4 | 80% | 57% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| Wisconsin | 3 | 90% | 54% | 26% | 9% | 4% | 2% |
| Arizona | 4 | 87% | 57% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 1% |
| Gonzaga | 8 | 74% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| Kentucky | 3 | 84% | 48% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| Texas A&M | 4 | 74% | 43% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| Missouri | 6 | 68% | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| Clemson | 5 | 73% | 42% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| Purdue | 4 | 75% | 42% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| Illinois | 6 | 64% | 34% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
Champion Seed Distribution
- Seed 164.8%
- Seed 214.8%
- Seed 37.6%
- Seed 4+12.8%
Round 1 Projected Upset Rates
⚰️ Elimination Graveyard
Which teams eliminated the most brackets
No eliminations yet
Data will appear here during the tournament
All historical data covers 1985–2025 (40 tournaments), when the bracket expanded to 64 teams. The 2020 tournament was cancelled.
Historical Performance
Best bracket from 1T simulations vs. best public brackets
| Year | Public | 1T |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 43 | 63 ✓ |
| 2024 | 31 | 46 |
| 2023 | 25 | 45 |
| 2022 | 28 | 48 |
| 2021 | 28 | 44 |
| Year | Public | 1T |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 49 | 57 |
| 2018 | 28 | — |
| 2017 | 39 | 59 |
| 2016 | 25 | — |
| 2015 | 34 | — |
Correct picks out of 63 games
NCAA Tournament History
Seeds, championships, and Final Four appearances
First Round Win Rate by Seed
Round of 64 only (excludes First Four play-in games)
*Only 2 sixteen-seeds have ever won: UMBC (2018), FDU (2023)
Championship Wins by Seed
40 champions total
Final Four Appearances by Seed
160 total Final Four spots (4 per year × 40 years, minus 2020)
*Seeds 12-16 have never reached the Final Four
Most Championships
11 other teams have won 1 title each
Most Final Fours Without a Title
*Houston lost the 2025 championship to Florida, their 3rd Final Four without a title
🏛️ Conference Dominance
All-time tournament wins by conference
Cinderella Final Fours
10-seeds or lower to reach the Final Four
*No seed lower than 11 has ever reached the Final Four
Team Records
All-time tournament performance leaders
🏅 Most Tournament Wins
Top 15 programs all-time
| # | Team | W | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 105 | 76.6% |
| 2 | North Carolina | 98 | 76.0% |
| 3 | Kansas | 94 | 72.9% |
| 4 | Kentucky | 84 | 73.7% |
| 5 | Connecticut | 67 | 78.8% |
| 6 | Michigan St | 63 | 66.3% |
| 7 | Arizona | 58 | 63.0% |
| 8 | Syracuse | 57 | 67.1% |
| 9 | UCLA | 55 | 66.3% |
| 10 | Michigan | 51 | 69.9% |
| 11 | Louisville | 49 | 67.1% |
| 12 | Florida | 48 | 68.6% |
| 13 | Villanova | 47 | 68.1% |
| 14 | Gonzaga | 46 | 63.9% |
| 15 | Purdue | 40 | 57.1% |
📊 Most Appearances
Top 15 teams all-time
| # | Team | App | FF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas | 38 | 10 | 3 |
| 2 | Duke | 37 | 13 | 5 |
| 3 | North Carolina | 35 | 12 | 4 |
| 4 | Arizona | 35 | 4 | 1 |
| 5 | Kentucky | 33 | 8 | 3 |
| 6 | Michigan St | 33 | 8 | 1 |
| 7 | Purdue | 30 | 1 | 0 |
| 8 | Texas | 30 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Syracuse | 29 | 5 | 1 |
| 10 | UCLA | 29 | 5 | 1 |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 27 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Xavier | 27 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Indiana | 27 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Illinois | 26 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Louisville | 26 | 4 | 2 |
Scoring Records
Highest, lowest, and most lopsided games
Highest-Scoring Games
Top 5 combined scores (all feature Loyola Marymount!)
Lowest-Scoring Games
Boring!!!!
Biggest Blowouts
Top 5 largest margins of victory
Consecutive Streaks
Longest tournament appearance streaks (2020 excluded)
*Kansas has made 35 straight tournaments—the longest active streak in NCAA history
Fun Facts
🏆 Most Common Championship Seed Matchups
Team Advancement Probabilities
Probability each team reaches each round, based on one trillion simulated brackets.
| Team | Seed | Rd of 32 | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Champ Game | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 1 | 99% | 86% | 70% | 53% | 36% | 22% |
| Michigan | 1 | 99% | 87% | 69% | 49% | 30% | 18% |
| Arizona | 1 | 99% | 85% | 68% | 49% | 30% | 18% |
| Florida | 1 | 98% | 77% | 52% | 30% | 15% | 7% |
| Houston | 2 | 97% | 74% | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% |
| Iowa St. | 2 | 96% | 73% | 48% | 22% | 11% | 5% |
| Illinois | 3 | 97% | 75% | 41% | 22% | 11% | 5% |
| Purdue | 2 | 96% | 75% | 47% | 21% | 10% | 4% |
| UCONN | 2 | 96% | 66% | 36% | 13% | 5% | 2% |
| Mich. St. | 3 | 91% | 58% | 33% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| Gonzaga | 3 | 95% | 62% | 31% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| Vanderbilt | 5 | 84% | 49% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| Virginia | 3 | 94% | 53% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| Arkansas | 4 | 90% | 56% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| Nebraska | 4 | 89% | 46% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| Tennessee | 6 | 86% | 44% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| St. John's | 5 | 81% | 47% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| Alabama | 4 | 86% | 51% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| Louisville | 6 | 66% | 31% | 16% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Kansas | 4 | 88% | 46% | 11% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
Champion Seed Distribution
- Seed 164.9%
- Seed 217.8%
- Seed 39.4%
- Seed 4+7.9%
Round 1 Projected Upset Rates
Elimination Graveyard
Which teams eliminated the most brackets
No eliminations yet
Data will appear here during the tournament