Simulation and Historical Statistics for the NCAA Tournament

Statistics from a trillion brackets for the 2026 and historical NCAA Tournaments

Team Advancement Probabilities

Probability each team reaches each round, based on one trillion simulated brackets.

Seed:

Show:

Team	Seed	Rd of 32	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Champ Game	Champion
Duke	1	99%	82%	66%	49%	33%	21%
Florida	1	99%	82%	64%	46%	30%	17%
Auburn	1	99%	77%	59%	42%	25%	14%
Houston	1	99%	70%	54%	37%	21%	13%
Tennessee	2	93%	68%	47%	24%	12%	6%
Alabama	2	93%	65%	41%	18%	9%	4%
TTU	3	90%	58%	34%	15%	7%	3%
MSU	2	92%	61%	35%	16%	7%	3%
Iowa St	3	89%	57%	31%	14%	6%	2%
St. Johns	2	92%	56%	29%	12%	5%	2%
Maryland	4	80%	57%	20%	11%	5%	2%
Wisconsin	3	90%	54%	26%	9%	4%	2%
Arizona	4	87%	57%	18%	9%	4%	1%
Gonzaga	8	74%	24%	15%	8%	3%	1%
Kentucky	3	84%	48%	20%	8%	3%	1%
Texas A&M	4	74%	43%	14%	7%	3%	1%
Missouri	6	68%	31%	16%	6%	2%	1%
Clemson	5	73%	42%	13%	6%	2%	1%
Purdue	4	75%	42%	13%	6%	2%	1%
Illinois	6	64%	34%	14%	5%	2%	1%

All 1-seeds in Final Four

3.47%

(34,710,994 brackets)

No 1-seeds in Final Four

10.14%

(101,378,817 brackets)

Chalk Round 1 (all lower seeds proceed to round 2)

0.0076%

(76,467 brackets)

All 16-seeds win Round 1

<0.0001%

(12 brackets)

16-seed reaches Championship

0.0001%

(1,218 brackets)

Double-digit seed wins title

0.86%

(8,637,468 brackets)

More coming soon...

—

Champion Seed Distribution

Seed 164.8%
Seed 214.8%
Seed 37.6%
Seed 4+12.8%

Round 1 Projected Upset Rates

16 over 1

15 over 2

14 over 3

12%

13 over 4

21%

12 over 5

38%

11 over 6

42%

10 over 7

35%

9 over 8

36%

⚰️ Elimination Graveyard

Which teams eliminated the most brackets

#	Team	Brackets Eliminated	%
1	UCONN def. Illinois	2	100.0%
2	High Point def. Wisconsin	314,012,881,894	81.2%
3	UCONN def. Duke	6	75.0%
4	Texas def. Gonzaga	5,399,525	71.2%
5	Iowa def. Florida	40,034	68.7%
6	Texas def BYU	4,470,924,848	60.3%
7	VCU def. UNC	19,619,893,638	59.3%
8	Iowa def. Nebraska	2,608	56.8%
9	TCU def. OSU	563,946,011,419	56.4%
10	Saint Louis def. Georgia	1,554,182,506	56.3%
11	Tennessee def. Iowa St.	61	55.5%
12	Texas A&M def. Saint Mary's	7,412,059,842	55.1%
13	Illinois def. Houston	770	53.4%
14	UCONN def. Mich. St	126	53.4%
15	Nebraska def. Vanderbilt	952,141	53.3%
16	Tennessee def. Virginia	60,785	51.1%
17	Arizona def. Purdue	15	50.0%
18	Alabama def. Texas Tech	4,376	48.8%
19	Michigan brutally mogs Tennessee	7	46.7%
20	St. Johns def. Kansas	185,961	46.4%
21	Miami def. Missouri	17,202,220	44.9%
22	Utah St. def. Villanova	136,395,610	43.7%
23	Iowa def. Clemson	66,251,968	43.6%
24	Michigan St. def. Louisville	7,766,666	42.9%
25	Kentucky def. Santa Clara	375,365,112	40.7%
26	UCONN def. UCLA	5,792	39.2%
27	Illinois def. Iowa	19	38.8%
28	Michigan def. Alabama	120	33.7%
29	Lousiville def. S. Florida	24,474,624,106	33.6%
30	UCLA def. UCF	22,419,428	33.6%
31	Illinois def. Penn	92,963,395	31.6%
32	Arizona def. Arkansas	187	27.8%
33	Purdue def. Texas	545	27.4%
34	Duke def. St. Johns	129	26.6%
35	Purdue def. Miami (FL)	190,558	26.2%
36	Texas Tech def. Akron	141,964,792	25.9%
37	Iowa St. def. Kentucky	134,568	25.1%
38	Arizona def. Utah St.	3,457	19.0%
39	St. Johns def. N. Iowa	16,080,572	18.8%
40	Houston def. Texas A&M	1,716,420	18.5%
41	Illinois def. VCU	397,966	18.2%
42	Vanderbilt def. McNeese St.	7,669,160,691	16.0%
43	Tennessee def. Miami (OH)	24,299,454	13.8%
44	Alabama def. Hofstra	49,605,812	13.7%
45	Arkansas def. High Point	107,999	12.9%
46	Kansas def. Cal Baptist	5,226,595	12.0%
47	Nebraska def. Troy	49,292,414,977	11.3%
48	Michigan def. St. Louis	2,165,286	10.7%
49	Duke def. TCU	1,019,427	9.9%
50	Arkansas def. Hawaii	3,866,033,560	9.6%
51	MSU def. NDSU	3,338,659,180	9.6%
52	Virginia def. Wright State	24,268,839	6.0%
53	Gonzaga def. Kennesaw St.	61,295,016	5.1%
54	Purdue def. Queens (NC)	2,780,909	5.0%
55	UCONN def. Furman	893,065	4.2%
56	Iowa St. def. Tenn. St.	15,476,449	4.1%
57	Houston def. Idaho	90,025,008	3.2%
58	Florida def. Prairie View	662,745	1.5%
59	Arizona def. Long Island	4,061,882	1.0%
60	Duke def. Siena	337,918,474	0.7%
61	Michigan def. Howard	93,801,082	0.7%

📊

All historical data covers 1985–2025 (40 tournaments), when the bracket expanded to 64 teams. The 2020 tournament was cancelled.

Historical Performance

Best bracket from 1T simulations vs. best public brackets

1T simulations only used data available before the tournament began

Year	Public	1T
2025	43	63 ✓
2024	31	46
2023	25	45
2022	28	48
2021	28	44

Year	Public	1T
2019	49	57
2018	28	—
2017	39	59
2016	25	—
2015	34	—

Correct picks out of 63 games

NCAA Tournament History

Seeds, championships, and Final Four appearances

40 tournaments

First Round Win Rate by Seed

Round of 64 only (excludes First Four play-in games)

98.8%

93.1%

85.6%

79.4%

64.4%

61.3%

48.1%

51.9%

#10

38.8%

#11

38.8%

#12

35.6%

#13

20.6%

#14

14.4%

#15

6.9%

#16

1.3%

*Only 2 sixteen-seeds have ever won: UMBC (2018), FDU (2023)

Championship Wins by Seed

40 champions total

26 titles

65.0%

5 titles

12.5%

4 titles

10.0%

2 titles

5.0%

1 title

2.5%

1 title

2.5%

1 title

2.5%

Notable Lowest Seeds to Win

#8 Villanova '85 — Shocked Georgetown

#7 UConn '14 — Shabazz Napier's run

#6 Kansas '88 — "Danny & the Miracles"

Final Four Appearances by Seed

160 total Final Four spots (4 per year × 40 years, minus 2020)

41.3%

20.0%

10.6%

9.4%

5.6%

3.8%

#11

3.8%

1.9%

1.3%

#10

0.6%

*Seeds 12-16 have never reached the Final Four

Most Championships

UCONN

🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆 (6)

Duke

🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆 (5)

North Carolina

🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆 (4)

Florida

🏆 🏆 🏆 (3)

Villanova

🏆 🏆 🏆 (3)

Kansas

🏆 🏆 🏆 (3)

Kentucky

🏆 🏆 🏆 (3)

Louisville (1 vacated*)

🏆 🏆 (2)

11 other teams have won 1 title each

Most Final Fours Without a Title

Houston

◆ ◆ ◆

3 FFs

Oklahoma

◆ ◆ ◆

3 FFs

Ohio St

◆ ◆ ◆

3 FFs

Wisconsin

◆ ◆ ◆

3 FFs

Georgetown

◆ ◆

2 FFs

Memphis

◆ ◆

2 FFs

LSU

◆ ◆

2 FFs

Illinois

◆ ◆

2 FFs

Georgia Tech

◆ ◆

2 FFs

Oklahoma St

◆ ◆

2 FFs

*Houston lost the 2025 championship to Florida, their 3rd Final Four without a title

🏛️ Conference Dominance

All-time tournament wins by conference

ACC

389 11🏆

Big Ten

338 3🏆

Big East

336 10🏆

SEC

287 6🏆

Big 12

217 3🏆

Pac-10

141 2🏆

Atlantic 10

95 0🏆

Big Eight

71 1🏆

Pac-12

66 0🏆

WCC

61 0🏆

Cinderella Final Fours

10-seeds or lower to reach the Final Four

Syracuse (ACC)

2016

LSU (SEC)

1986

George Mason (CAA)

2006

VCU (CAA)

2011

Loyola-Chicago (MVC)

2018

UCLA (Pac-12)

2021

NC State (ACC)

2024

*No seed lower than 11 has ever reached the Final Four

Team Records

All-time tournament performance leaders

🏅 Most Tournament Wins

Top 15 programs all-time

#	Team	W	%
1	Duke	105	76.6%
2	North Carolina	98	76.0%
3	Kansas	94	72.9%
4	Kentucky	84	73.7%
5	Connecticut	67	78.8%
6	Michigan St	63	66.3%
7	Arizona	58	63.0%
8	Syracuse	57	67.1%
9	UCLA	55	66.3%
10	Michigan	51	69.9%
11	Louisville	49	67.1%
12	Florida	48	68.6%
13	Villanova	47	68.1%
14	Gonzaga	46	63.9%
15	Purdue	40	57.1%

📊 Most Appearances

Top 15 teams all-time

#	Team	App	FF	🏆
1	Kansas	38	10	3
2	Duke	37	13	5
3	North Carolina	35	12	4
4	Arizona	35	4	1
5	Kentucky	33	8	3
6	Michigan St	33	8	1
7	Purdue	30	1	0
8	Texas	30	1	0
9	Syracuse	29	5	1
10	UCLA	29	5	1
11	Oklahoma	27	3	0
12	Xavier	27	0	0
13	Indiana	27	3	1
14	Illinois	26	2	0
15	Louisville	26	4	2

Scoring Records

Highest, lowest, and most lopsided games

Highest-Scoring Games

Top 5 combined scores (all feature Loyola Marymount!)

Loyola Marymount

vs Michigan '90

Loyola Marymount vs Michigan '90

264 pts

Loyola Marymount

vs Wyoming '88

Loyola Marymount vs Wyoming '88

234 pts

UNLV

vs Loyola Marymount '90

UNLV vs Loyola Marymount '90

232 pts

Arkansas

vs Loyola Marymount '89

Arkansas vs Loyola Marymount '89

221 pts

North Carolina

vs Loyola Marymount '88

North Carolina vs Loyola Marymount '88

220 pts

*Loyola Marymount's run-and-gun style under coach Paul Westhead became famous for producing the highest scoring games in tournament history

Lowest-Scoring Games

Boring!!!!

Missouri St

vs Wisconsin '99

Missouri St vs Wisconsin '99

75 pts

Princeton

vs UCLA '96

Princeton vs UCLA '96

84 pts

Kansas

vs Ohio '85

Kansas vs Ohio '85

87 pts

Villanova

vs Maryland '85

Villanova vs Maryland '85

89 pts

Wisconsin

vs Pittsburgh '16

Wisconsin vs Pittsburgh '16

90 pts

Biggest Blowouts

Top 5 largest margins of victory

+58

Kansas

vs Prairie View

1998

+56

Connecticut

vs Chattanooga

2009

+49

Syracuse

vs Brown

1986

+47

Duke

vs Winthrop

2002

+47

Syracuse

vs Montana

2013

Consecutive Streaks

Longest tournament appearance streaks (2020 excluded)

🥇

Kansas

1990-2025

🥈

Michigan St

1998-2025

🥉

Gonzaga

1999-2025

Arizona

1985-2009

Duke

1996-2019

Arizona

1985-2009

Duke

1996-2019

*Kansas has made 35 straight tournaments—the longest active streak in NCAA history

Fun Facts

2,537

Total Games

All-time

695

Upsets

Lower seed wins

313

Teams

Made tournament

🏆 Most Common Championship Seed Matchups

9×

1 vs 1

8×

1 vs 2

5×

2 vs 3

3×

1 vs 3

3×

1 vs 4

3×

1 vs 5

2×

1 vs 8

2×

1 vs 6

1×

3 vs 3

1×

3 vs 8

Team Advancement Probabilities

Probability each team reaches each round, based on one trillion simulated brackets.

Seed:

Show:

Team	Seed	Rd of 32	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Champ Game	Champion
Duke	1	99%	86%	70%	53%	36%	22%
Michigan	1	99%	87%	69%	49%	30%	18%
Arizona	1	99%	85%	68%	49%	30%	18%
Florida	1	98%	77%	52%	30%	15%	7%
Houston	2	97%	74%	44%	26%	13%	6%
Iowa St.	2	96%	73%	48%	22%	11%	5%
Illinois	3	97%	75%	41%	22%	11%	5%
Purdue	2	96%	75%	47%	21%	10%	4%
UCONN	2	96%	66%	36%	13%	5%	2%
Mich. St.	3	91%	58%	33%	12%	5%	2%
Gonzaga	3	95%	62%	31%	12%	5%	2%
Vanderbilt	5	84%	49%	20%	8%	3%	1%
Virginia	3	94%	53%	23%	8%	3%	1%
Arkansas	4	90%	56%	16%	7%	3%	1%
Nebraska	4	89%	46%	18%	7%	2%	1%
Tennessee	6	86%	44%	19%	6%	2%	1%
St. John's	5	81%	47%	13%	6%	2%	1%
Alabama	4	86%	51%	14%	6%	2%	1%
Louisville	6	66%	31%	16%	5%	2%	1%
Kansas	4	88%	46%	11%	5%	2%	<1%

All 1-seeds in Final Four

3.78%

(37,750,766,550 brackets)

No 1-seeds in Final Four

8.57%

(85,670,069,720 brackets)

Chalk Round 1 (all lower seeds proceed to round 2)

0.024%

(238,848,461 brackets)

All 16-seeds win Round 1

<0.0001%

(7,352 brackets)

16-seed reaches Championship

<0.0001%

(106,134 brackets)

Double-digit seed wins title

0.127%

(1,269,398,005 brackets)

Double-digit seed in Final Four

3.92%

(39,237,029,620 brackets)

Champion Seed Distribution

Seed 164.9%
Seed 217.8%
Seed 39.4%
Seed 4+7.9%

Round 1 Projected Upset Rates

16 over 1

15 over 2

14 over 3

13 over 4

12%

12 over 5

20%

11 over 6

32%

10 over 7

41%

9 over 8

50%

Elimination Graveyard

Which teams eliminated the most brackets

#	Team	Brackets Eliminated	%
1	UCONN def. Illinois	2	100.0%
2	High Point def. Wisconsin	314,012,881,894	81.2%
3	UCONN def. Duke	6	75.0%
4	Texas def. Gonzaga	5,399,525	71.2%
5	Iowa def. Florida	40,034	68.7%
6	Texas def BYU	4,470,924,848	60.3%
7	VCU def. UNC	19,619,893,638	59.3%
8	Iowa def. Nebraska	2,608	56.8%
9	TCU def. OSU	563,946,011,419	56.4%
10	Saint Louis def. Georgia	1,554,182,506	56.3%
11	Tennessee def. Iowa St.	61	55.5%
12	Texas A&M def. Saint Mary's	7,412,059,842	55.1%
13	Illinois def. Houston	770	53.4%
14	UCONN def. Mich. St	126	53.4%
15	Nebraska def. Vanderbilt	952,141	53.3%
16	Tennessee def. Virginia	60,785	51.1%
17	Arizona def. Purdue	15	50.0%
18	Alabama def. Texas Tech	4,376	48.8%
19	Michigan brutally mogs Tennessee	7	46.7%
20	St. Johns def. Kansas	185,961	46.4%
21	Miami def. Missouri	17,202,220	44.9%
22	Utah St. def. Villanova	136,395,610	43.7%
23	Iowa def. Clemson	66,251,968	43.6%
24	Michigan St. def. Louisville	7,766,666	42.9%
25	Kentucky def. Santa Clara	375,365,112	40.7%
26	UCONN def. UCLA	5,792	39.2%
27	Illinois def. Iowa	19	38.8%
28	Michigan def. Alabama	120	33.7%
29	Lousiville def. S. Florida	24,474,624,106	33.6%
30	UCLA def. UCF	22,419,428	33.6%
31	Illinois def. Penn	92,963,395	31.6%
32	Arizona def. Arkansas	187	27.8%
33	Purdue def. Texas	545	27.4%
34	Duke def. St. Johns	129	26.6%
35	Purdue def. Miami (FL)	190,558	26.2%
36	Texas Tech def. Akron	141,964,792	25.9%
37	Iowa St. def. Kentucky	134,568	25.1%
38	Arizona def. Utah St.	3,457	19.0%
39	St. Johns def. N. Iowa	16,080,572	18.8%
40	Houston def. Texas A&M	1,716,420	18.5%
41	Illinois def. VCU	397,966	18.2%
42	Vanderbilt def. McNeese St.	7,669,160,691	16.0%
43	Tennessee def. Miami (OH)	24,299,454	13.8%
44	Alabama def. Hofstra	49,605,812	13.7%
45	Arkansas def. High Point	107,999	12.9%
46	Kansas def. Cal Baptist	5,226,595	12.0%
47	Nebraska def. Troy	49,292,414,977	11.3%
48	Michigan def. St. Louis	2,165,286	10.7%
49	Duke def. TCU	1,019,427	9.9%
50	Arkansas def. Hawaii	3,866,033,560	9.6%
51	MSU def. NDSU	3,338,659,180	9.6%
52	Virginia def. Wright State	24,268,839	6.0%
53	Gonzaga def. Kennesaw St.	61,295,016	5.1%
54	Purdue def. Queens (NC)	2,780,909	5.0%
55	UCONN def. Furman	893,065	4.2%
56	Iowa St. def. Tenn. St.	15,476,449	4.1%
57	Houston def. Idaho	90,025,008	3.2%
58	Florida def. Prairie View	662,745	1.5%
59	Arizona def. Long Island	4,061,882	1.0%
60	Duke def. Siena	337,918,474	0.7%
61	Michigan def. Howard	93,801,082	0.7%